Third Pole Markets
Alphabet’s Capital Allocation, by the Numbers
Independent research for long-term shareholders. We skip the daily noise and track what actually moves per-share value: buybacks, dividends, stock-based compensation, share classes, and the cash it takes to build AI infrastructure.
Latest Briefings
Short, sourced takes on the earnings, filings and market moves that matter to Alphabet and the rest of big tech. Every figure traces back to a filing or a named source.
Oracle’s Backlog Grew $26 Billion Last Quarter: Its Off-Balance-Sheet Lease Commitments Grew $28 Billion
TL;DR — Oracle's remaining performance obligations rose to $664 billion in the quarter ended August 31, up $26 billion from May. Lease commitments not yet on its balance sheet rose $28 billion to $288 billion. Customer prepayments of $11.4 billion kept free cash flow...
Nvidia Spent $39.8 Billion on Buybacks in Six Months, Then Added $150 Billion More: Its Share Count Fell 0.6%
TL;DR — Nvidia raised its buyback authorization by $150 billion to $235 billion on September 28. In the first half of fiscal 2027 it spent $39.8 billion repurchasing 203 million shares, yet its share count fell only 0.6% because employee equity kept adding shares....
The Fed Hiked to 3.75%-4% and Called Capital Investment Robust: The 10-Year Yield Topped 5% the Same Day
TL;DR — The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and the median official now sees 4.1% at the end of 2027, up from 3.6% in June. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5%. AI builders now financing with debt pay that...
The Big Four’s Combined 2026 AI Capex Guidance Hit $700 Billion: Two of the Four Now Have Negative Free Cash Flow
TL;DR — Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are now guiding to a combined 2026 capex figure north of $700 billion, most of it AI infrastructure. Two of the four, Alphabet and Amazon, reported negative free cash flow this earnings season. A third, Meta, generated just...
Meta’s Revenue Jumped 28% to $60.8 Billion: Net Income Fell 14% as Reality Labs’ Losses Passed $88 Billion
TL;DR — Meta's second-quarter revenue grew 28% to $60.8 billion, but net income fell 14% to $15.8 billion as costs jumped 55%, including $2.4 billion in legal charges, $1.18 billion in layoff severance, and a $4.62 billion quarterly loss at Reality Labs. The...
Alphabet Booked $77 Billion From Marking Up Anthropic and SpaceX: Free Cash Flow Went Negative $5.9 Billion the Same Quarter
TL;DR — Alphabet's Q2 2026 net income hit a record $112.1 billion, but $77.1 billion of it, after tax, came from marking up its Anthropic and SpaceX stakes to fresh funding-round prices, not from search, cloud or YouTube. Free cash flow went negative $5.9 billion the...
Arm’s Free Cash Flow Jumped 343% and Revenue Hit a Record $1.29 Billion: The Stock Fell 8% on an FTC Probe
TL;DR — Arm posted record fiscal first-quarter revenue of $1.29 billion, up 22%, and free cash flow jumped 343% to $665 million. The stock still fell more than 8% because the FTC opened a formal antitrust probe into whether Arm's new self-made AI chip gives it reason...
TSMC’s Revenue Jumped 44.7% in July to a Record High: Adjusted for a One-Time Gain, Earnings Grew Just 13.3%
TL;DR — TSMC's July revenue hit a record NT$467.6 billion, up 44.7% year over year, capping a quarter with 67.7% gross margin that beat guidance. But NT$2.24 of the quarter's 23.4% EPS growth came from a one-time gain on a Vanguard share sale; strip that out and...
The Alphabet Research Suite
Alphabet now spends more on data centers in a year than most companies are worth. Understanding the stock means following the cash: what comes in from Search, Cloud and YouTube, what goes out in capex and stock comp, and what is left for shareholders.
The Alphabet Research Suite is a set of long-form reference pages built from SEC filings and earnings calls, and updated as new numbers come in. Pick the topic closest to why you own the stock.
How to Use the Suite
Each report answers one question a shareholder should be able to answer. How fast is the share count shrinking? Who controls the votes? How much of the buyback just offsets employee grants?
Read them in any order. They cross-reference each other, and every figure links back to its source.
Alphabet’s Dividends
From Zero to a Quarterly Payout
Alphabet started paying a dividend in 2024. We look at what the payout costs each year, how it compares with the buyback, and how much room it has to grow.
Alphabet Share Buybacks
The Definitive Guide for the Long-Term $GOOGL Shareholder
Alphabet has run one of the largest repurchase programs in the market. We track how many shares it removed, at what price, how much of it offset employee grants, and what changed when AI spending took priority.
Alphabet Share Classes
How Google’s Three Share Classes Work
Class A votes, Class B controls, Class C trades without a vote. We explain who holds what, why GOOG and GOOGL trade at different prices, and what it means for an outside shareholder.
Alphabet RSU Report
The Real Cost of Stock Comp
Stock-based compensation is a real expense, paid in shares. We measure how much new stock Alphabet issues to employees each year and how much of the buyback goes to offsetting it.
Alphabet’s AI Pivot
The $175B Search Moat
Does AI search shrink Google’s core business or extend it? We follow Search revenue, paid clicks, ad pricing and the cost of serving AI answers, quarter by quarter.
Google Cloud
The Path to Margin Expansion
Google Cloud went from losing money to being one of Alphabet’s fastest-growing profit lines. We track its revenue, operating margin and backlog, and what the infrastructure bill does to the parent’s free cash flow.
Alphabet Antitrust Paradox
What a Breakup Would Actually Be Worth
The DOJ cases put Google’s search distribution deals and its ad tech business at risk. We run the numbers on the remedies, the default-search payments to Apple, and a sum-of-the-parts valuation.
The Silicon Substrate
Why Google Builds Its Own Chips
Google designs its own AI chips, the TPUs, instead of relying only on Nvidia. We look at what that saves, what it costs in capex, and how it shapes Cloud margins and outside deals.
Alphabet ETF Exposure Map
A Structural Guide for Class A & C Shareholders
Alphabet sits near the top of the S&P 500, the Nasdaq-100 and the communication services sector funds. We map which ETFs hold Class A versus Class C shares and how index flows move the stock.
What We Do — The Methodology
Start With the Filings
Every analysis starts with the 10-K, the 10-Q and the earnings call. We focus on free cash flow, share count and capital spending, and we link to the source for every figure.
Explain the Trade-Offs
Numbers need context. We explain what management chose to fund, what it chose not to fund, and how those choices compare with peers.
The Long-Term Horizon
We write for investors who hold for years, not days. No price predictions: we follow the figures that compound, meaning cash generation, reinvestment and per-share ownership.
The Research Discipline Every number is sourced. Every position is disclosed.
The Research Discipline
Sourced Numbers. Disclosed Positions.
Third Pole Markets runs on one rule: if a number can’t be traced to a filing or a named source, it doesn’t run. We keep reported facts separate from our interpretation, and we say so when we’re making a judgment call.
Who Writes This
Third Pole Markets is written by an independent investor with a long position in Alphabet. We don’t manage outside money, sell trading signals or chase social media. The goal is research you can check yourself.